Spot silver (XAG/USD) fluctuated in a limited range on Monday (April 6, 2026) and tended to consolidate, as the market held its ground ahead of US President Donald Trump's announced deadline for opening the Strait of Hormuz. FXStreet noted that XAG/USD weakened by around 0.7% at the end of the Asian session, but remained within a narrow range.

Reuters reported that Trump gave Iran a deadline of Tuesday evening US time to open the Strait of Hormuz, along with a threat of attacks on infrastructure if it failed to comply. This headline risk has led market participants to adopt a wait-and-see approach, as silver price direction is highly sensitive to rapid changes in perceptions of geopolitical and energy risks.

At the same time, diplomatic signals have helped contain panic. FXStreet cited circulating reports of discussions about a 45-day ceasefire between the US and Iran (referring to Axios), which, if developed, could lower geopolitical risk premiums and typically reduce the safe-haven appeal of precious metals.

However, safe-haven support doesn't automatically translate

However, safe-haven support doesn't automatically translate into a smooth silver price rally, as the market believes the conflict could spill over into inflation through surging energy costs, thus impacting interest rate expectations. In a persistently high interest rate environment, non-yielding assets like silver tend to be relatively less attractive, so the rally could be contained despite increasing uncertainty.

The next focus will be on concrete developments leading up to and following the Strait of Hormuz deadline, as well as US monetary policy signals that could alter the direction of the dollar and yields. FXStreet highlights the market's focus this week on the FOMC meeting minutes scheduled for release on Wednesday, as they could reshape interest rate expectations and provide an additional driver for XAG/USD. (Zaf)