Oil Rises for Fourth Day; US-Iaran Standoff Persists

Oil prices rose for the fourth consecutive day as there were no signs of progress in resolving the US-Iran conflict, which has been ongoing for nearly six months. Brent crude edged closer to US$92 per barrel after gaining 4.5% over the previous three sessions, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around US$86 per barrel.

Tensions remain high after US President Donald Trump asserted that no talks are currently underway with Tehran. This situation leaves the status of the Strait of Hormuz in limbo, with Iran and the United States holding conflicting views on the management of this vital shipping lane.

The Strait of Hormuz is a focal point because it connects Persian Gulf oil producers to mancanegara markets. Vessel traffic through the strait remains severely limited, keeping the market anxious about potential energy supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Oil prices have surged since the

Oil prices have surged since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February. In addition to the US-Iran conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war has further tightened internasional energy markets following a series of attacks on oil refineries. The pressure is most evident in the prices of energy products like diesel, which have risen more sharply than crude oil.

The United States also plans to ramp up economic pressure on Iran to force Tehran to soften its stance, while maintaining a blockade on Iranian ports. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated that a new package of tough measures could be announced this week. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates announced it would halt all trade and financial transactions with Tehran amidst escalating regional tensions.

Further support for oil prices stems from signs of declining inventories in the United States. The American Petroleum Institute reported a drop in national crude oil stockpiles, including at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub. Distillate stocks—which include diesel—are also expected to have fallen, though official US government data is still pending.

Newsmaker Analysis: The current rally in

Newsmaker Analysis: The current rally in oil prices indicates that the market is still factoring in a significant geopolitical risk premium, particularly because the Strait of Hormuz has not returned to normal operations and neither the US nor Iran has shown signs of entering negotiations. As long as Brent crude remains above US$90, energy-driven inflationary pressure is likely to stay high, potentially influencing expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Should US inventories decline again and new pressure on Iran trigger a response from Tehran, Brent could test higher price levels. However, news of diplomatic breakthroughs or the opening of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a rapid price correction. (asd)*

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