Gold Stalls; Profit-Taking Caps Rally

Gold prices remained relatively stable during Friday's trading (Aug 14) after extending a correction from a more than two-month high. Spot gold hovered around US$4,349.71 per troy ounce, while futures contracts fell approximately 0.4% to US$4,404.65. Despite the correction, gold remains on track for a second consecutive week of gains.

The primary pressure stemmed from profit-taking following a strong rally over the past few days. Investors began locking in gains, even though US inflation data this week indicated more contained price pressures and eased concerns regarding a Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September.

The market now estimates a roughly two-thirds probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady next month. Both July CPI and PPI figures showed more moderate inflation, while signs of a weakening labor market provided the central bank with further room to wait before implementing additional tightening measures.

However, gold's movement remains overshadowed by

However, gold's movement remains overshadowed by geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The deadlock in US-Iran negotiations concerning the Strait of Hormuz, combined with Washington's threat to maintain a naval blockade against Iran, keeps energy supply uncertainty high. A fresh escalation could drive oil prices up again and reignite inflation fears.

From a technical perspective, gold briefly broke above its 100-day moving average for the first time since April but failed to sustain that position. This triggered consolidation following the major rally, although investor demand and central bank buying—particularly from China—continue to provide fundamental support for the medium term.

Newsmaker Analysis: The current correction in gold prices reflects profit-taking rather than a shift in fundamental trends. Softer inflation data and a reduced likelihood of a Fed rate hike remain supportive of gold, yet elevated price levels leave the market vulnerable to consolidation. The US$4,300 level serves as a key support zone, while a renewed break above US$4,400 would signal a resurgence of bullish momentum. (arl)

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