New US Sanctions Boost Oil Prices

Oil prices maintained their gains during Thursday's trading (August 20) after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose harsher new economic sanctions on Iran. Brent rose approximately 2.1% to US$93.57 per barrel, while WTI strengthened 2.0% to US$87.56. Both benchmarks hit their highest levels since July 24, marking five consecutive sessions of gains.

The market is beginning to factor in the possibility of a prolonged standoff in the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that Washington would launch a massive economic pressure campaign against Iran and urged US allies to join in tightening restrictions. He also warned that entities continuing to do business with Tehran could face economic consequences.

Iran is already facing sanctions on oil exports, while the US maintains a naval blockade on several Iranian ports. In response to Washington's pressure, Tehran has restricted activity in the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway that, prior to the conflict, handled approximately 20% of the world's oil and LNG supplies.

Recent shipping data indicates that commercial

Recent shipping data indicates that commercial activity through Hormuz remains far below pre-conflict levels, despite repeated assertions by US officials that the route is open. This situation keeps the geopolitical risk premium high, as the market lacks certainty regarding the normalization of tanker traffic.

Trump reiterated that the US holds control over Hormuz and left the door open for potential negotiations with Iran at some point. However, Tehran insists there has been no direct dialogue and demands that Washington fulfill the terms of an interim agreement signed in June. That framework expired this week with no clear indication of an extension.

Newsmaker Analysis: The bias for oil remains bullish as the market grapples with a combination of threatened new sanctions, restricted shipping through Hormuz, and uncertainty surrounding US-Iran diplomacy. With Brent nearing US$94, there is potential to test the US$95 level should the escalation continue. However, following five consecutive sessions of gains, the risk of profit-taking is also mounting should signals of de-escalation or an improvement in supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz emerge. (arl)

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