Gold Holds Steady Below US$4,400 as Markets Weigh Fed and Hormuz Factors

Gold prices remained relatively stable during Friday's trading (August 14) after retreating from a 10-week high. Spot gold edged up approximately 0.2% to the US$4,359.73 per troy ounce level—following a 1.3% correction in Thursday's session—yet remained on track for a second consecutive weekly gain.

Gold's fundamental outlook continues to be supported by relatively contained US inflation data. Easing price pressures in July suggest that the impact of the energy price surge linked to the Iran conflict is subsiding, thereby reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates again.

Money markets currently price in only a one-in-three chance of an interest rate hike in September. Investors will now closely monitor upcoming US labor market data and remarks from Fed official Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium in late August for further clues regarding the direction of monetary policy.

However, gold still faces risks associated

However, gold still faces risks associated with interest rates remaining high for an extended period. While the absence of a Fed rate hike serves as a positive factor, persistently high bond yields could make Treasuries more attractive than gold, which offers no interest yield.

On the geopolitical front, Middle East tensions continue to bolster gold's safe-haven appeal. Any fresh escalation between the US and Iran could potentially drive up energy prices and inflationary risks once more. Meanwhile, central bank buying—particularly from China—continues to sustain demand for gold following the price recovery from the US$4,000 level in recent weeks.

Newsmaker Analysis: Gold's fundamentals remain generally constructive, though technical momentum has begun to wane following a sharp rally. A failure to hold above US$4,400 opens the door for short-term consolidation in the US$4,350–US$4,300 range. Nevertheless, should expectations for a Fed rate hike continue to decline and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz intensify, gold retains the potential to retest the US$4,400 level and even its previous highs. (asd)*

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