Silver Gains Slightly, Market Tests Fed Direction Amid Iran-US Diplomacy

Silver prices (XAG/USD) held firm in European trading on Monday (April 6), trading around US$73.30 per troy ounce after recovering intraday losses. Support came from easing speculation of a very hawkish Federal Reserve stance, following reports pointing to the prospect of a ceasefire in the Middle East.

The market believes the US-Iran talks have the potential to suppress oil prices and help ease inflation concerns, which in turn reduces pressure on interest rates to remain high. Within this transmission, lower inflation expectations tend to lower real yields and support non-yielding assets such as precious metals. However, this support is not entirely solid, as geopolitical risks related to energy flows remain a key variable.

According to Reuters, the US and Iran have reportedly accepted a proposed framework for ending hostilities in a two-phase process: an immediate ceasefire followed by negotiations towards a broader agreement. Pakistan is said to have played a role in the exchange of the framework, while Tehran has stated that it will not reopen the Strait of Hormuz based solely on a temporary ceasefire arrangement. Bloomberg, citing Axios, previously reported discussions about a 45-day ceasefire option, amid President Donald Trump's warning that he would escalate pressure if no deal is reached.

Looking ahead, silver's upside potential remains limited by the possibility of the central bank delaying interest rate cuts if inflation persists. Market participants are now awaiting the release of the FOMC meeting minutes for clearer clues regarding the Fed's policy path, particularly how much the Fed weighs the risks of energy inflation against the growth outlook.

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